Why "Single-Agent" theories attract us.
Why conspiracy theories are likely wrong
A rabbit is peacefully chewing on a bit of grass in the middle of a field.
Suddenly, it hears a sharp sound. It stops chewing. It looks up. Its senses and its brain strain for information for two seconds and then it dashes quickly back to its burrow. It gets to chew grass another day. Actually, the sound was just a small branch breaking fifty metres away.
The rabbit’s brain assumed a “single, negative agent of causation.” It assumed a predator was nearby and that it was in danger. Natural selection furnished the rabbit’s brain with this behaviour. Presumably because, over millions of years, the rabbits that just legged it from the first sound survived longer than those that stuck around to check if the threat was genuine or not.
We are the same.
When something shocking happens, we are configured to assume a “single, negative agent of causation.”
When our culture is in upheaval, as it is these days, we look to the media to tell us what’s going on. If that seems untrustworthy, we fall back on our basic evolutionary instincts. We look around for a single, negative agent of causation - a James Bond style baddie who is pulling the strings and trying to unfold his evil plan for world domination.
Is it Bill? Or is it Klaus? Or is it George? Maybe it’s all three! They’re in it together!
This is how David Icke and Alex Jones achieve their fame. They furnish us with theories of single agent causation.
The single-agent-causation theory also helps to mobilise our emotions, in the same way that the rabbit ran from sound. These days there are millions of devotees of single-agent-causation theories, aka conspiracy theories, and they are becoming a political force. It creates change. Political parties shy from making statements that might provoke a direct response from the conspiracy theorists, get them to point and say, “There, I told you they were planning that all along!”
I mean, maybe it even works.
Rather than dig into all the complex, historic, geopolitical wrangling going on behind the scenes, all the deals, treaties, all the battles for ascendency and general Machiavellian rubbing of hands… why not just assume a single negative agent of causation and fight against that?
Maybe that works. Maybe we shall find out.
There is a book called " The Tipping Point " and the premise of the book is that the circumstances eventually create a moment in which there is change . Another book
"Into Thin Air " about a climb up Mt Everest , you can easily see the back story behind the
crisis . Some people are good at seeing the big picture , but do not know how to progress in it , others only see the goal , with varying success . Listening to Bobby Fischer the chess genius is fascinating to me - his approach to analysis . Are there conspiracies ? Do people collude to destroy or support ? Are we just floating amoebas ? Destiny anyone ?
the gift of history is to be able to look back without pressure and see what it is that you see - and some people have clairvoyance , they feel the future in their system . Some are very moment to moment - I myself am into the concept of Black Papers , which is the analysis of the context that things are happening in . Such as , most people today are not breast fed for more than six months , when the human race for millenia was breastfed for at least probably first four years of life ( or they died ) - my mom always says " you don't have to explain all the reasons , just pick ONE reason " but that is the way she thinks . At least , maybe that penetrates reality the best , one main point of rationale . Most situations are conundrums , or compilations - I am not really taking a position - except for one thing , which is that people who have stalled development , such as Bill Gates and Autism , or Trump and Narcissism , need to be understood as singular in their thought process and approach to stories , short term they will make headway , long term can do a lot of damage .