How to spot a Conspiracy Theory and a Conspiracy Theorist

Go full tinfoil hat in safety!

Introduction

I love Joe Rogan’s expression “to go full tinfoil hat.” To me, it represents an integral aspect of life in the 2020s. We are so surrounded by alternative explanations for all manner of phenomena, physical or political, that we can leap down as many narrative rabbit-holes as we wish.

Personally, I think it is good to be able to go full tinfoil hat. I see it as analogous to dropping acid back in the day. The experience might be weird or crazy. It might disturb us. But, when we come back, if we come back, something has expanded within us.

Around the time of Bill Clinton’s troubles for indiscretions in the White House, commentators started saying things like, “Yeah, okay. But who wants a president that never smoked a joint? Never took advantage of his power, even for a moment?” I think this is valid. Who does want some squeaky clean boss who’s never walked on the wild side for even a few hours?

In like manner, who really wants to be part of a social group where everyone only ever holds to the version of history that we were taught in school? Not me. It’s just not cool to be so rigid.

Conspiracy theories, like drugs in days gone by, give us an opportunity to jump down the rabbit hole. Just as Alice did, in the opening to Lewis Carroll’s famous book…

Alice started to her feet, for it flashed across her mind that she had never before seen a rabbit with either a waistcoat-pocket, or a watch to take out of it, and burning with curiosity, she ran across the field after it, and fortunately was just in time to see it pop down a large rabbit-hole under the hedge.

In another moment, down went Alice after it, never once considering how in the world she was to get out again.

When, and if, we get out again, the world is different. We have expanded.

But why does this expansion take place? It happens I believe because a good conspiracy theory offers us the chance to really challenge our preconceptions. All we have to do is to believe in it.

What if we never landed on the moon? What if Bill Gates really is the Antichrist? What if the British are still running the world from some office in Whitehall?

What would it mean to us if these things actually were true?

What it would mean, I submit, is that the version of history that we have been taught has errors.

And if history is wrong… what else is wrong, our mind starts to ask? And the rabbit-hole opens up. All the narratives that we have identified with and internalised - from political history to notions of our self-worth - start to become fluid.

This making of our mind more mobile is inevitably accompanied by fear. What might happen to me if I believed that? Where will it lead? What if challenging the idea that the US is a fully-functioning democracy is actually just a “gateway conspiracy” - leading to all that weird reptilian shit?

I think these types of fears are valid. So, in this piece, I am setting out a list of the classic giveaways that indicate that a conspiracy theory, or conspiracy theorist, is just that - a theory, unlikely to be grounded in reality.

What makes me such an expert? I used to write conspiracy theories nearly a quarter-century ago, have an interest in the power of narrative and memes to shape culture, and work as a therapist, often dealing with heavy psychological issues. But this piece is actually not about me trying to be an expert. I just felt to share what I’ve come across, in my years in the scene. And you can nod along with whatever resonates for you, if anything.

How to Spot a Conspiracy Theory

Over the years that I’ve been around this scene, I’ve come to identify five classic “tells” that allow you to distinguish between a likely true interpretation and a dubious one.

#1: Confirmation Bias - Selecting only those pieces of evidence about a scenario that fit the desired interpretation, and ignoring those that point to a different conclusion.

Imagine a scenario - say the bombing of a building. And say that there are 100 pieces of evidence pointing to a whole variety of possible causes for this incident.

A conspiracy video for this event will likely look like this. The 15 pieces of evidence that point towards CIA collusion will be presented one after the other, with subtly building music in the background, leading to the sense of one unavoidable conclusion - they did it! Meanwhile, the 85 pieces of evidence that don’t point in that direction will be utterly ignored. This is confirmation bias.

#2: The ‘One Bad Guy’ Scenario - Selecting for “single agent causation” over more complex possibilities, or emergence. There is evidence from the field of evolutionary psychology that, under stress, we are wired to select simplistic theories that point to one, negative actor. And to reject more complex interpretations. This helps rabbits avoid predators but leaves us prone to believe in lone, negative agents when many other possibilities may exist.

#3: Creative Retrofitting - Good conspiracy theorists are masters at this technique, constantly altering their theories to match what is going on in the world. And thus making it seem as though they had all along been predicting the current situation. Anyone who has objectively followed the output of David Icke, over the decades, will absolutely recognise this over and again. No matter what happens, it’s all part of the evil plan.

#4: Extreme Joint Enterprise - The theory requires the collusion of so many people that it becomes unwieldy and one cannot realistically imagine anyone being able to organise it. Some of the theories that emerged in the wake of 9/11, for example, required the collusion of pretty much the whole of the US Government. It’s hard to imagine any potential conspirator trying to action and keep secret a plan that requires so many people to know about it.

#5: Any Plan is better than No Plan - The idea that, actually, no one is in control of the world tends to be pretty scary to the average human mind. If there is no control then who knows what might happen in the future? To such a mind, the idea of a single “bad guy,” who can at least be opposed, may feel less scary than the idea that no one is running things.

How to Spot a Conspiracy Theorist

Here are three sure signs that the theory is fulfilling a psychological need, as opposed to being a genuine attempt at an objective statement of reality.

#1: Suppression of Feeling - The conspiracy theorist experiences a psychological need to both believe the theory themselves, and to convince others that it’s true. But why would they need such a thing? Because the theory acts as a psychological bulwark to the re-experiencing of painful childhood feelings around surrendering to authority.

For some people, current events, such as being told to wear a mask or take a vaccine, presses a button deep within them. Being pushed to surrender to the will of authority, or the masses, evokes a powerful response. The area of their unconscious mind where they did not as kids trust the authority figures around them becomes strongly activated. But rather than simply say that they do not trust, which will open the inner wound up more deeply, the person prefers to find a way to frame the situation that justifies their non-compliance. Enter the conspiracy theory. And if they can keep the theory strong, they don’t have to feel the deeply personal wounding they’ve been carrying around.

This is why conspiracy theorists frequently spend hours daily, “researching” their pet theory, reading more and more internet material about it. And rarely exposing themselves to alternative explanations for what’s going on. These hours of ritual activity, masked as research, help to keep the dam strong.

In addition, we all learned as kids the power of recruitment to keep our own inner insecurities at bay. I remember being jealous of a tall, popular kid in my year at school. I recall the temptation of spreading negative stories about him, and trying to spot those whom I might recruit to my negativity. As long as I could keep myself and enough others in that narrative, I didn’t have to deal with my own insecurities about my height and my popularity. The same principle applies here. Each person that can be recruited to upholding the conspiracy narrative strengthens its power to hold our own personal insecurities at bay.

Thus, the conspiracy theorist will usually subtly feel out those whom he or she meets, gently testing the water to see if the theory could possibly find a new home there. If they believe you might be amenable, you will soon find a string of videos and Substack articles being forwarded to you.

I must mention that, in addition to people triggered by current events, there are also people who are simply opening up on a psychological level and who begin to uncover this submerged wound around authority, compliance and surrender. They may suddenly find themselves attracted to conspiracy theories, and start spending hours daily on the net, without any external trigger.

#2: Escape Into Naivety - There is often an incredible naivety to conspiracy theorists that may at first seem endearing. They invariably believe that life would be happy and good were it not for a few evil conspirators who are constantly ruining it for everyone.

To me, this is not just idealism but actually serves a purpose. By setting the activity of the supposed bad guys against a backdrop of otherwise blissful co-existence, the proposed bad agents can be seen as supremely bad, as opposed to simply being on a continuum.

I think that it is fair to say that humanity has required huge adaptive pressure to develop to the point that it has. Not long ago, we were apes. Then we were living in tribes, fighting neighbouring tribes on a near-daily basis. Now we live in cities surrounded by useful tech. Our lives are incredibly different from how they were just one hundred generations ago.

This development happened because of the way that successive human empires swept across the world, disseminating knowledge in the wake of brutal conquest - the Greeks, the Romans, the Persians, the Mongols, the Arabs, the British and many more. Each exploited the power and knowledge differential that they possessed at the time, with respect to their neighbours. They invaded, conquered, enslaved and performed acts of horrific barbarity. But this bloody, murderous process also allowed the widespread dissemination of knowledge, culture and power to each corner of the globe.

Without this monstrous, brutal process, no development would have occurred. Without tangible daily pressure, we would never have made it from apes to increasingly human beings. Allowed to simply go our own way, how many of us would do anything other than laze around, snack and try to make it seem like we have status?

What I’m trying to say is that human development is inevitably accompanied by huge ongoing challenge. We will find ourselves constantly pushed and prodded and our buttons pressed. To me it is unrealistic, and mostly undesirable, to seek otherwise.

The notion that we would be “just fine” without this colossal, ongoing, adaptive pressure is, I submit, little more than a child’s fantasy.

#3: Topicality - Finally, one clear sign that the theory is serving more of a personal psychological function, rather than being a representation of a likely scenario out in the world, relates to its topicality. Is the social pressure that gave rise to it still strong? During the Covid-19 pandemic, the need to believe in alternative explanations was seen to be at its peak during the very times that government and societal pressure to conform was at its strongest. Once the pressure died off, the need for the theory reduced.

When US servicemen returned from Vietnam, it was noticed that, once they were no longer being subjected to insane levels of daily stress, the majority no longer needed the opiates to which that had becomes addicted whilst on their tour.

In like manner, as the government dials down pressure to conform, so the numbers of hours being logged on YouTube or 4chan conspiracy sites will similarly reduce.

Final Points

If you are currently drawn to a conspiracy theory, and you want to check if it’s likely to be true or not, feel free to objectively assess the theory you are drawn to using the above criteria.

However, please be aware that, as humans, we actually sit on phenomenal amounts of repressed energy and emotionality. These theories act as “holding structures” to keep energy, mobilised by current events, under control. They do perform a psychological function that you may need, at least for a while.

Thus, it may not be possible to just “come off” conspiracy theories in one go. You may need to “step down” slowly, perhaps for example adopting “halfway house” scenarios. of background collusion between power brokers, rather than believing in one bad cabal.

One practice that you can try is to begin speaking about your feelings around events that trigger you, as opposed to simply going into black and white judgments.

For example… Instead of saying, “15-minute cities are just wrong and anyone who believes in them is a slave;” try saying, “I feel triggered by the idea of 15-minute cities, like I’m going to be trapped with no way out.” By investigating and owning your reactions in this way, your self-awareness can rise.

I also want to make it clear that this piece is actually not an attack on conspiracies or conspiracy theorists. At the end of the day, I think people have a right to believe what they wish. And I am trying to not be as confrontational as I have been in the past. This piece is simply my attempt to stimulate self-awareness, through sharing what I have seen in the patterns of behaviour of myself and others around this scene.

I also wish to make it clear that reacting strongly to a perceived demand to surrender to authority, or to the masses, is by no means the only unconscious strategy that is mediated in the face of external circumstances. There will also be heaps of people who simply submit to authority, not daring to challenge, through fear.

As a general rule, you can tell which group you are likely in by remembering how you were with your parents’ authority growing up. If you complied physically but resisted mentally, you will be way more likely get into conspiracies theories at some point. If you complied physically and mentally you are more likely to just blindly obey. If you resisted both physically and mentally, you will possibly still be fighting your way through life on a daily basis.

I actually am quite a fan, both of conspiracy theories and of investigating just what is really going on in the world. But, in order to do this effectively, I need a way to discount or marginalise those theories which are not coming from a clear space, given the sheer size of the conspiracy marketplace these days. Hence the principles set out in this piece.

If you’d like to see how I think the world is really run, then see my piece here.

And, finally, I do personally believe that our world is riddled with conspiracies and submerged truths.

Thank you for reading.